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Early Warning Classrooms: Machine Learning Models for Predicting Academic Risk

University educators traditionally identified struggling students only after midterm exams were failed; predictive machine learning models analyze continuous digital engagement to trigger early proactive student counseling.

Author
Silvia Pacheco-Mendoza et al.
Published
2023
Journal
Education Sciences
Last updated
September 2026
Early Warning Classrooms: Machine Learning Models for Predicting Academic Risk

College student dropout rates represent a major crisis in higher education, resulting in wasted tuition, diminished economic mobility, and institutional attrition.

Academic advisors historically lacked real-time visibility into student performance, relying on sporadic exam grades that revealed learning failures too late in the semester to rescue student GPA.

This study develops an explainable machine learning predictive model trained on multi-dimensional learning management system (LMS) interaction metrics, forum participation, and quiz submission regularity across university cohorts.

Deploying predictive early-warning systems allows academic institutions to deliver targeted tutoring and psychological support weeks before midterm assessments, significantly boosting course retention and graduation rates.

Reference

Pacheco-Mendoza, S., Guevara, C., Mayorga-Albán, A., & Fernández-Escobar, J. (2023). Artificial Intelligence in Higher Education: A Predictive Model for Academic Performance. Education Sciences, 13(10), 990.

Title

Artificial Intelligence in Higher Education: A Predictive Model for Academic Performance

Abstract

This research work evaluates the use of artificial intelligence and its impact on student’s academic performance at the University of Guayaquil (UG). The objective was to design and implement a predictive model to predict academic performance to anticipate student performance. This research presents a quantitative, non-experimental, projective, and predictive approach. A questionnaire was developed with the factors involved in academic performance, and the criterion of expert judgment was used to validate the questionnaire. The questionnaire and the Google Forms platform were used for data collection. In total, 1100 copies of the questionnaire were distributed, and 1012 responses were received, representing a response rate of 92%. The prediction model was designed in Gretl software, and the model fit was performed considering the mean square error (0.26), the mean absolute error (0.16), and a coefficient of determination of 0.9075. The results show the statistical significance of age, hours, days, and AI-based tools or applications, presenting p-values < 0.001 and positive coefficients close to zero, demonstrating a significant and direct effect on students’ academic performance. It was concluded that it is possible to implement a predictive model with theoretical support to adapt the variables based on artificial intelligence, thus generating an artificial intelligence-based mode.

Cited 46 times · View on doi.org

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